Is it just me or has a lot of the media coverage in the last 6-8 weeks become very negative again. I met management of a manufacturing company last week who told me they are looking at a projected 20%  increase in business this year and significant pipeline of international opportunities continues to develop. An auctioneering friend tells me that business always picks up after St. Patrick’s Day and they had their week in over a year 2 weeks ago. But stories like these tend not to make the news and instead we get headlines that tell us our continuing difficulties challenges in business and personal finances as we try to comprehend what NAMA will cost this and future generations.

The following survey results from the Sunday Independent adds to this anxiety with almost 40% of a poll of 300 chief executives fearing a double dip recession.

Almost 40 per cent of Ireland’s top chief executives fear the country may face a “double dip” recession, according to the Sunday Independent Business Leaders Survey, a poll of Ireland’s top 300 businesses.

Economists have suggested the recession may technically end this year, with modest growth pencilled in, as Ireland piggybacks on a global recovery. But this growth may be short-lived as spiralling public debts, shattered consumer confidence, rising unemployment and potential interest rate hikes drive the country back into recession.

The survey found that 39 per cent expected a “double dip”, just ahead of 38 per cent of respondents who forecast that Ireland would escape a second recession. Almost 23 per cent were undecided.

The American Chamber of Commerce estimates that up to 40 per cent of Ireland’s corporation tax comes from US subsidiaries based here, and, if the recession deepens in the US, exports from Ireland will be hit further.

The prospects for Ireland over the coming 12 months are grim according to the business elite, with only one in seven confident the economy will improve.

Brian Lenihansaid last week in the Dail that “others believe in us; we must now begin to believe in ourselves”, but it seems that the majority of Ireland’s head honchos have long since stopped believing.

Of those polled, 43 per cent were either “negative” or “very negative” about our economic prospects, with almost as many unsure. A mere 14 per cent believed it was going to be a good year for the country and the economy, despite the tough year they had in 2009.

The threat of a “double dip” recession or “W-shaped recovery” was highlighted by top economist Nouriel Roubini, the man who predicted the financial crisis of the last three years. Along with Roubini, some economists believe global economies will decline again once the crutch of state bailouts and various stimulus packages are removed.

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  The results below mirror what Talent Partners are seeing with our clients in the manufacturing sector. The order book is increasing, especially in the exports market but there is still a huge focus on competitiveness and costs and and those individuals being recruited need to be able to demonstrate their ability to make or save money and/or time for their new employer. Roles we have recently placed in this sector include Quality Manager, Operations Manager, HR Managers, Project Engineers and Manufacturing Engineers.

Taken from the rte.ie website

Business conditions in the country’s manufacturing industry improved for the first time in 28 months in March.

The NCB Purchasing Managers index rose strongly to stand at 53 in March from a reading of 48.6 in February. A figure over 50 signals growth in the sector.

NCB said the reading marked the greatest improvement in business conditions since September 2007 as output and new orders rose sharply, driven by record new export order growth.

NCB economist Brian Devine said that the most encouraging thing about the March survey is that demand has strengthened in domestic as well as foreign markets.

‘New export orders raced ahead at the strongest rate since the survey began in 1998. New orders increased at their most rapid rate in 30 months, providing evidence that the Irish domestic market may also have bottomed out,’ he stated.

Output in the manufacturing sector increased considerably last month with the rate of expansion the fastest in 45 months. NCB said the rise was driven by higher new business.

New orders also grew for the first time in three months and at the fastest pace since September 2007. New export orders increased more quickly than total new business. NCB also pointed out that new orders from abroad rose at the fastest pace in the series history.

However, although demand strengthened last month, the rise was not enough to lead to an increase in employment levels in the manufacturing sector. Company staffing levels fell at the slowest pace since March 2008 last month.

Today’s survey shows that input costs rose for the third month in a row as raw material prices rose. But despite the increase, charges continued to fall with customers continuing to look for discounts.

The survey says that supplier lead times lengthened, which reflected insufficient stocks to cover an increase in purchasing activity among manufacturers.

Input buying also rose for the first time since November 2007 in response to higher new orders. NCB notes that the rate of growth was the fastest in a decade.

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